Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
